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Reading migration headlines from Dar es Salaam: how Australia counts net overseas migration

News · 2026-08-26 · 4 min read

Every few weeks a new Australian headline quotes a migration figure, and readers in Dar es Salaam, Arusha or Dodoma are left to guess what it means. This explainer walks through how the figure is counted, where the arrivals come from and what the political promises really say. At the end there is a short list of what to do with the information.

Step one: the counting rule

NOM, or net overseas migration, is people who arrive and stay at least a year, less those who leave to live abroad. Australia applies a 12/16-month rule. It does not demand an unbroken 12-month stay. A person counts if they live in Australia for 12 months inside any 16-month window, even split across visits. A student who leaves for a month-long trip home and returns still counts, if their combined time adds up.

Step two: who is in and out

1. Included: returning Australian citizens and permanent residents, and New Zealanders moving across the Tasman. These groups move largely visa-free.
2. Excluded: diplomats and their families.
3. Uncertain: short-term workers under the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility (PALM) programme, who may or may not be counted, depending only on the length of the placement.

Step three: the latest numbers

The most recent figure is roughly 301,000 for the year to December 2025. That is a substantial fall from the post-pandemic high of around 556,000 in 2023, but it is still above official projections, with a drop to 225,000 pencilled in for 2027–28. Forecasts have often undershot reality. The mix in 2024–25 shows why: international students contributed about 157,000, mostly in higher education, skilled visa holders about 86,000, working holiday-makers close to 78,000, family reunion about 24,000 and humanitarian visas just under 15,000. Another 64,000 were Australian citizens returning and 53,000 were New Zealand citizens, both largely outside visa policy. Working holiday arrangements do not apply to Tanzanian passport holders, so treat that number as background only.

Step four: what the parties promise

One Nation has committed to 130,000, although a newer MP suggested a real number near 225,000 if PALM workers and aged care nurses were factored back in, and senior figures then restated 130,000. It flags cuts to graduate visas, student numbers and the skilled list. The Coalition has not fixed a figure and would link any cap to housing construction, perhaps under 200,000. One senator floated 180,000 for working holiday, student and select skilled visas, and others distanced themselves because regional employers depend on seasonal labour. Labor has taken 225,000 by 2028 as its working target and stresses enforcement, with temporary visa holders leaving when visas expire and slower processing on working holiday and skilled applications.

Step five: what you do with it

Look at the categories. Student, graduate, working holiday and parts of the skilled list are under political scrutiny, so processing times, eligibility and caps in those streams may change sooner than family reunion or humanitarian intake. Treat any target as a direction, not a promise. Our earlier article on the global immigration squeeze shows that Australia is not alone, and what visa fees could mean for your budget helps with planning.

Common mistakes Tanzanian readers make

• Believing a headline total tells you about your own visa stream.
• Assuming a NECTA result or VETA certificate is the same as an Australian skills assessment.
• Skipping advice. Ask a migration agent on the MARA register about Australia, or a licensed immigration adviser about New Zealand.
• Waiting for political clarity before preparing documents, including a police clearance from the Tanzania Police Force when requested.

A strong CV from Build AI CV and a look at our jobs page are good next steps.

Frequently asked questions

Is NOM only about visas?

No. It includes citizens and New Zealanders.

Do diplomats count?

No, they are excluded.

Why do PALM workers sometimes count?

It depends on how long their placement lasts.

Which target is the most specific?

Labor’s 225,000 by 2028 and One Nation’s 130,000.

What is the safest approach?

Plan flexibly and check policy details as they are released.

Key takeaways

• NOM uses a 12/16-month rule and includes returning citizens.
• The latest figure is roughly 301,000, with a high of around 556,000 in 2023.
• Students are the largest visa group at about 157,000.
• Student, graduate, working holiday and parts of the skilled list face scrutiny.
• Targets are a direction, not a promise.

#net overseas migration #12/16-month rule #tanzania #australia visa news #migration data