← All posts

Is the Australian points test picking the wrong people? Findings for applicants in Tanzania

Visa guide · 2026-09-03 · 4 min read

Imagine two applicants from Dar es Salaam. One collects extra points through a community language credential and an Australian degree. The other has strong English, a clear occupation and relevant work experience. New research suggests the second may be the better bet for both the migrant and the country, and that the points test does not always reward accordingly.

How the research was done

Researchers cross-referenced tax outcomes against visa pathways using tax, Census and visa records over three decades, covering the early 2010s through to 2022. They asked which criteria in the points test relate to later economic contribution.

What does not seem to help

Community language credentials, regional study, "Professional Year" programs, specialist qualifications outside core regulated fields and study at an Australian university show little or no link to outcomes, and some are linked with worse ones. International students who later moved through the points system tend to earn less and are considerably more likely to work below their qualification level.

Why the test struggles

1. It was designed for offshore applicants, yet the majority of points-tested visas now go to people already in Australia, many former international students.
2. One scale covers different labour markets. It performs reasonably for regulated professions such as healthcare, and poorly for engineering and business.
3. Strong predictors, namely age, education, English proficiency and relevant work experience, are underweighted.
4. Applicants already working in Australia are scored as if no performance data existed.

A growing group is also cycling through bridging and temporary visas, adding pressure to housing and public services.

The two fixes

The lower-friction fix keeps one test but strips out categories with no predictive value and raises the weight of age, education, English proficiency and Australian work experience. The more ambitious fix creates two streams: a skills-based one for offshore applicants and recent graduates not yet working locally, and a labour-market-experience one for temporary visa holders already employed in their nominated occupation, assessed mainly on age and demonstrated Australian earnings over the prior two years. The second blends employer sponsorship logic with the flexibility of points.

Why it matters beyond the visa office

• It could shift the intake towards people more likely to land skilled jobs.
• It could remove the incentive for visa chasing, where study is chosen to maximise points.
• It could give applicants and advisers clearer guidance: build strength in a regulated, in-demand occupation or prove yourself in the Australian labour market.

Reading the research with care

It is worth remembering what a study like this can and cannot say. It looks at groups of migrants over time and finds patterns, which is not the same as predicting any one person's career. A migrant with a community language credential can still do very well, and a graduate of an Australian university can still struggle. The point is about the system's design, not about individuals. For applicants it is a prompt to ask which parts of an application actually build a strong case, instead of collecting points for their own sake.

Australia's debate also tends to focus on volume, how many people and how fast. The research argues the bigger lever is how well migrants are selected, and that using the data the country already holds could be worth billions in productivity and tax revenue over time.

Steps from Tanzania

• Remember that these are options, not rules. Check each visa's own page.
• Build the traits the evidence favours.
• Find out what your occupation needs. A NECTA result or a VETA certificate never automatically equals a skills assessment, licence or registration.
• Request police clearance from the Tanzania Police Force only when asked.
• Speak to an agent registered with the Migration Agents Registration Authority (MARA).

Common mistakes in points planning

Chasing every available point is one. Choosing a course only for the points is another. If your English needs work, practise with PractiseNow. If your skills are real but your qualification is informal, ask about recognition of prior learning, and Build AI CV can help you present your experience.

Frequently asked questions

Which criteria were questioned?

Community language credentials, regional study, Professional Year programs, certain specialist qualifications and study at an Australian university.

Is the student route a shortcut?

The research suggests it can be a slow, expensive detour.

What would the second stream measure?

Age and demonstrated Australian earnings over the prior two years.

Are changes confirmed?

No.

What can I read next?

See the diploma shutdown article and the student visa refusals piece, and the jobs page.

Key takeaways

• Some points-test criteria show little link to later outcomes.
• Age, education, English and work experience are underweighted.
• Two reform options exist, neither in force.
• Build real strength in an occupation.
• Take advice from an agent registered with MARA.

#points-tested visas #reform #australia #skilled workers #tanzania